Alexey Vedev

About forecasts

There is no lack in forecasts of Russian economic development nowadays. For commercial banks and investment companies it's a question of professional reputation to present their own forecasts. Monetary authorities also have to publish their official forecasts. And economic forecasting is an essential part of Russian and foreign think tanks activity.

Substantial dispersion in estimates as well as their frequent revisions is by no means the evidence of low professional level of the authors — it's an objective reality of transition economies.

The project "Forecasts of Russian economic development" started by Econometric Unit VEDI presents forecasts of the main economic indicators, as well as the history of these forecasts, i.e. the history of revisions of estimates till the publication of the official results.

Our final goal is not to reveal the winner or to find "an average temperature in the hospital". We do believe that the comparison of different estimates is essential for the analysis of causal relationships in the economy, spirits of the market participants, their priorities and actual planning horizon.

We greately appreciate the participation of leading experts in the field of economic analysis and forecasting and invite banks, companies and think tanks to join this project.

Forecast of Russian
Economic Development
for 2005 (update 16.02.06)
for 2006 (update 12.08.06)
for 2007 (update 18.08.06)
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